NFL Week 1 Underdog Fantasy Entries

The preseason is finally over and now we can all turn our attention to real, meaningful NFL football.

The DFS sites like Underdog Fantasy have started to drop their player prop lines for Week 1 and there’s tons of value across the board that I pounced on immediately.

If you haven’t signed up for Underdog Fantasy yet, be sure to do so using promo code “ODDSJAM” for a first deposit match up to $100. It’s literally free money, so there’s zero downside.

Underdog also frequently has some of the best value on the market using OddsJam, so they are a great platform to have in your betting toolbox.

Pick #1: Trevor Lawrence Under 258.5 Passing Yards

I found this play using the OddsJam Screen, which shows the totals and odds for every single sportsbook and DFS site with available odds in that specific market. Here, I filtered by NFL and then player passing yards.

Take a look at the screenshot below across the three different DFS sites (Underdog, PrizePicks, and ParlayPlay).

As you can see, both PrizePicks and ParlayPlay have this line around 246 while Underdog is 12 yards higher at 258.5.

This means there’s a 12-yard “middle” where if Lawrence gets between 247 and 257 yards, the over on PrizePicks and ParlayPlay hits while the under on Underdog hits.

Instead of taking both sides though, I’m just putting all my eggs in the Underdog basket because ParlayPlay and PrizePicks are similar, so I think that’s where the line should be.

We don’t have market data from sportsbooks like DraftKings and FanDuel yet because they haven’t put their props up, but even just two against one I’m going to go with the one (Underdog) outlier.

Full Slip #1:

The same concepts of Underdog being the outlier applied to Olave and Watson here, so I put them in a three-pick entry.

Now, let’s get into a five-pick entry.

Pick #1: Nick Chubb Over 81.5 Rushing Yards

I found this play again on the OddsJam NFL screen. This time, we have even more DFS sites available to compare.

Underdog has this line at 81.5, while HotStreak is the ONLY other site with a line below 90! We are getting 9 yards of value to PrizePicks, 11 yards to ParlayPlay, and 12 yards to Thrive! That’s an entire first-down run, which can make a huge difference over the course of the game.

If he lands between 82 and 88 rushing yards, we cash our over while every person who took his over on another book is a loser.

Pick #2: Geno Smith Under 248.5 Passing Yards

Exact same thing here from the OddsJam screen. We have 13 free yards of value to cash in on with Smith.

This play also shows up on the OddsJam Fantasy Optimizer, which is your one-stop shop for profitable plays on every DFS site. Here’s a screenshot of the five from the full slip below and how they show up on the Optimizer.

I don’t bet with my heart or my gut or any of that nonsense. I am not smarter than or have better models than the sportsbooks. Instead, I let them all establish the market and then I just hunt for outliers.

It really makes sports betting so much easier, especially using the OddsJam software which does all the work for you, scanning millions of odds and markets every second hunting for the most profitable bets.

Full Slip #2: