On the last day of the WNBA regular season, we have a very interesting match-up between the two best teams in the Western Conference: the Seattle Storm and the Las Vegas Aces.
At 25-10, the Aces are the #1 seed in the Western Conference (and tied for the #1 seed overall with the Connecticut Sun), while the 22-13 Storm are the #2 in the West and the #4 overall seed. While the outcome of this game won’t affect seeding in the conference, it could serve as an early preview of what to expect in the WNBA’s Western Conference Finals.
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Seattle Storm
For the Seattle Storm, defense has been the name of the game all year. With the third best defensive rating in the league, and the second fewest points allowed (77.5 PPG), the Storm have made their mark on the league through their defensive intensity, particularly in their ability to force turnovers.
While they’re not one of the better rebounding teams in the league, coming in at 10th overall, they average both the third highest steals per games and blocks per game – and when coupled with how minimally they turn the ball over (12.6 times per game, good for second in the league), the Storm are all about maximizing their possessions and minimizing opponent possessions. They have to be, as they’re only the 5th best offense in the league, both based on points per game and offensive rating.
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Las Vegas Aces
The Aces are, in many ways, the inverse and polar opposite of the Storm. While the Storm thrive in defensive situations, the Aces are all about offense. On the season, they have the fastest pace in the WNBA, the highest number of points per game, and the number 1 offensive rating. And while it has clearly worked for them (as evidenced by their #1 seed and great record), they need to have that level of offense in order to thrive, as they give up a lot on the defensive end and are in the bottom half of the league defensively (8th for opponent points per game, 6th for defensive rating).
With scorers like Kelsey Plum and A’Ja Wilson, the Aces rely on fast-paced offensive brilliance to dominate, and while they don’t force turnovers to the extent that the Storm do, they’re the best team in the league in terms of ball protection, turning it over a league-best 11.1 times per game.
While the stakes for this one aren’t as high as they are for some of the other games on the final day of the WNBA regular season, that’s not to say that this game doesn’t mean anything. Truly, it could be hugely impactful on what we can expect from these teams in the post-season, particularly if they end up matching up with one another in the second round.
While it may be the less common pick, we’ll be taking the Seattle Storm to win this fourth and final match-up of the regular season with the Las Vegas Aces. They’re 1-2 against them so far this season, and they’ll be looking to even up the record heading into the playoffs. While the Aces have looked a bit better lately, both teams are on win streaks and are coming into Sunday’s match-up full of momentum and ready for a near-playoff crowd. We’ll be taking the Storm moneyline, available for +190 at DraftKings.
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