WNBA Best Bets Thursday 9/12/24

The WNBA action is heating up as the regular season winds down, and today we’ve got just one game on the slate: New York Liberty vs. Dallas Wings. This matchup provides some interesting betting angles, and we’ll dive deep into the stats, trends, and reasoning behind today’s best bets.

Key Insights: Liberty vs. Wings

• New York Liberty (-11.5): The Liberty are locked in for the #1 seed with just four games left. They’re motivated to finish strong and enter the playoffs on a high note.
• Dallas Wings: With no playoff hopes, the Wings are simply playing out the season. After a brief glimmer of hope, they’ve lost five straight games, including a recent 14-point defeat to New York.

Game Breakdown

The Liberty have owned the season series against the Wings, winning all three matchups by an average of 14 points. In Tuesday’s game, New York’s offense was electric, shooting 54% from the field and 55% from deep, going 16 of 29 from three-point range. On the other hand, Dallas struggled from deep, shooting just 25%.

Key stats to consider:

• Liberty Offense: 86 points per game (2nd in the WNBA)
• Wings Offense: 84 points per game (4th in the WNBA)
• Liberty Defense: 76 points allowed per game (3rd in the WNBA)
• Wings Defense: 91 points allowed per game (last in the WNBA)

The difference between these teams lies in their defense. While the Wings can score, their inability to stop opponents has been their downfall. The Liberty, with their high-octane offense and stifling defense, should control the game once again.

Best Bets for Liberty vs. Wings

1. Liberty 1st Half Spread (-6.5)

New York has a tendency to come out strong, especially when they want to put games away early. The Liberty have jumped out to big leads and coasted in many of their games, and I expect the same approach today. They’ll look to secure the win and rest key players like Breanna Stewart and Sabrina Ionescu heading into the playoffs.

• Why?: The Liberty have covered the first-half spread in most of their wins. The Wings are prone to slow starts, and in the previous matchups, New York has pulled ahead early and maintained control.

2. Game Total Under 182.5

While both teams can score, there’s reason to believe this one may stay under the total. In two of the last three matchups, these teams have hit the under, despite combining for 196 points on Tuesday.

• Why?: Despite the offensive firepower of both teams, Dallas has hit the under in 64% of their games this season, while New York has gone under this specific total 81% of the time. The Liberty’s defensive prowess, combined with the Wings’ inconsistency, points toward a lower-scoring game.

3. Player Prop: Breanna Stewart Under 7.5 Rebounds (+105)

Breanna Stewart is a force on both ends, but her recent rebounding numbers on the road tell a different story. In her last six road games, Stewart has failed to reach 8 rebounds, averaging just 5 boards per game.

• Why?: Dallas ranks 3rd in the league in rebounds allowed, and they’re especially tough on forwards. Stewart has consistently stayed under this number when playing away from home, making this an appealing value play at plus money.

4. Arike Ogunbowale Over 20.5 Points (-120)

Arike Ogunbowale has been on fire lately, hitting the over on her points prop in five straight games. Even though the Liberty have a top-tier defense, Arike has the volume and ability to push past 20 points.

• Why?: Ogunbowale is the engine of Dallas’ offense, and with the Wings out of playoff contention, she’ll have the green light to shoot as much as needed. She’s exceeded 20.5 points in 7 of her last 8 home games, making this a strong bet.

Final Thoughts

The Liberty are clearly the better team, but this double-digit spread gives me pause. I like New York to come out strong and cover the first-half spread, but I’d be cautious about laying the full 11.5 points. Dallas might fight hard in the second half, especially with this being a back-to-back matchup. The under also looks solid based on recent trends, especially with the playoff-bound Liberty likely looking to conserve energy late.

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