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As a form of gambling, sports betting is inherently risky. Some bets win, some bets lose, and we try to find an edge. That is, unless you only bet using the arbitrage betting strategy.
Arbitrage betting, also known as arbing, is when a bettor places a wager on both sides of an outcome in order to guarantee profit no matter what the result is. Understandably, most people hear that something guarantees a profit and immediately roll their eyes and assume it’s a scam, but in this case it’s not. If done properly, arbitrage betting results in a profit 100% of the time.
Let’s walk through an example of an arbitrage betting opportunity.
I opened the arbitrage tool and found this great arb between Caesars and DraftKings (Fliff and Golden Nugget also have the same line as DraftKings, but I used DraftKings).
As you can see in the screenshot, Caesars has +100 odds on over 2.5 runs in the first three innings and DraftKings has +105 odds on under 2.5 runs. One of the two is guaranteed to win. It’s not possible for a half run to be scored, so either it will go over or under.
One side of the bet will win, and one will lose. At +100 and +105 odds, you can make risk-free money on this market.
Let’s use a $100 bet on DraftKings as our example. I plugged it into the calculator icon listed on the left side of the arbitrage tool.
The calculator tells me that if I bet $102.50 at Caesars to go along with my $100 at DraftKings, I will profit $2.50 no matter what. Think about it, if the $102.50 at +100 odds wins because the first three innings went over, I win $102.50 for a total payout of $205. If it goes under, my DraftKings bet wins at +105 odds for a total payout of…$205. Either way, I’m being paid out $205 on a total stake of $202.5.
Now that you understand how arbitrage betting works, let’s get into some tips from my experience using the tool.
Whenever there’s an arbitrage opportunity, by definition one of the sportsbooks (or both) have a mispriced line.
For example, say there’s an arb where the entire market is at -110, DraftKings is at +100, and Caesars is at +110.
DraftKings is closer to the market, so Caesars is the biggest outlier. Rush to bet the Caesars side first because it’s most likely to move back down to market value quickly.
Odds are, the DraftKings line will stay the same or move at a slower pace. If you get the Caesars line in first at +110 and DraftKings moves before you can place there, the worst case scenario is you can hedge for no loss at any other book on the market at -110. Or, you can ride out a clearly profitable +110 positive expected value bet.
Going off of tip #1, the arbitrage tool can highlight extremely valuable bets that the positive expected value tool may not be picking up on. The EV tool (especially with recommended filters turned on) is amazing, but every bet has to meet a lot of qualifications through our formulas and calculations around the market data.
Especially when lines are only available on a couple of books, the arbitrage tool can be a great way to identify positive EV bets to place for a massive edge. Of course, you can always still place both sides to guarantee yourself profit.
At the top right corner of the tool, there’s a filters button that opens a bar at the top of the tool with ways you can filter the opportunities you see.
First of all, I choose the books that I want to show up. Currently, I have enough money for arbitrage opportunities in these six books so I selected just those six.
Now I don’t have to waste time combing through bets that I won’t even be able to place.
Next, I filtered out player props since some books have limited me pretty heavily on those.
Finally, I adjusted my date range to the next seven days. Arbitrage bets can often tie up a large portion of my bankroll, so I don’t like to be without that money to work with for more than a week.
If you have any questions or comments about my arbitrage betting strategy, please send me an email ([email protected]) or DM on Twitter @raybelkora. I’ll be happy to help you out.